Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OKC vs MIN · Mar 15, 2026
87%P(over)
Over 30.5PTS
- Projection
- 36.0
- +5.5 vs line
- Last 10
- 4/10
- over hit
Probability: uncalibrated estimate
Find the Edge. Beat the Sportsbook.
Analyze player props with AI-powered projections, probability estimates, and matchup insights to uncover potential value, make smarter picks, and win.
3 free analyses a day. No card required.
Historical replay
Real picks, graded. Misses included.
Two stored analyses for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić, computed as of game day and graded against the final box score. They show what an analysis returns, not a track record.
See a full resultMiss · actual 20
Nikola Jokić
DEN @ LAL · Mar 14, 2026
52%P(over)
Over 12.5REB
- Projection
- 12.7
- +0.2 vs line
- Last 10
- 5/10
- over hit
Probability: uncalibrated estimate
Historical example — replayed as of noon UTC on game day; not a live pick.
How it works
From one prop to a clear, saved answer
- 01
Choose the prop
Pick a scheduled game and a canonical player, then the market, your line and your side. Nothing runs until you submit.
- 02
Read the estimate
Projection, model probability and the gap to your line, with recent games, matchup context and the data clock beside them.
- 03
Keep the evidence
Save the analysis and it becomes an immutable snapshot. When the game is final it is graded — misses included.
01 · Your prop
- Player
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
- OKC
- Game
- vs MIN
- Mar 15, 2026
- Market
- Points
- Line
- 30.5
- PTS
- Side
- Over
- Window
- Last 10
02 · Model output
Projection
36.0
+5.5 vs your line
P(over)
87%
model estimate · uncalibrated estimate
Last 10 on your side
4/10
observed history, not a forecast
ML + Rules (Random Forest) · interval 30.3–40.3 (central 60% band)
03 · Saved analysis
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Over 30.5 PTS
Snapshot as of 12:00 UTC, Mar 15, 2026 · projection 36.0 · P 87%
Reopening shows these exact numbers; nothing is recomputed against newer data. Historical example — replayed as of noon UTC on game day; not a live pick.
What you get
Every layer of a prop, in one place
Each analysis keeps the input, the estimate, the evidence and its limits together, so a polished number never outruns its source.
Projections
A forward estimate for the stat you picked, blending a rules projection with a Random Forest when there is enough history.
When the model cannot run, the result is labeled with the fallback it used instead of pretending it ran.
Projectionvalue + gap to your line
Learn more about projectionsProbability estimates
The chance of your side, labeled with how it was produced and whether it is calibrated — never dressed up as certainty.
Historical hit rates sit beside it as a separate number, because what happened is not what will happen.
P(side)with calibration label
Learn more about probability estimatesMatchup context
Opponent allowance and rank, pace, rest, venue and opportunity (minutes, plate appearances, snaps), each with the definition that produced it.
Context is descriptive. Contender shows it so you can disagree with the model, not to replace your read.
Contextdefined per field
Learn more about matchup contextRecent games & hit rates
Your side across the last 5, 10 and 15 games, the season and head-to-head, charted against your exact line.
Sharp adds a 20-game display window. The window changes what you see, never what the model trained on.
HistoryL5 · L10 · L15 · L20*
Learn more about recent games & hit ratesSaved, graded history
Pro and Sharp save each analysis as an immutable snapshot and grade it automatically once the box score is final.
Did-not-play and postponed games are voided, not counted as losses, and stat corrections re-grade with a new version.
Snapshotwin · loss · push · void
Learn more about saved, graded historyParlay math
Two to four legs, each with the full analysis, combined under a clearly labeled independence assumption.
Same-game legs are flagged and the possible range under any dependence is shown, not hidden behind one number.
Combinedestimate + bounds
Learn more about parlay mathModel output, labeled
Projections blend a rules estimate with a Random Forest when the history supports it. Every result names the method it used and its calibration status.
A visible data clock
Schedules and box scores are versioned. Each analysis records its source, eligible seasons and the latest game it could see.
Limits stay in view
Late scratches, role changes and dependence between legs can break assumptions. Missing context is named, never filled with a plausible number.
Plans
Start free. Upgrade for volume and history.
Free
01$0forever
Try the full single-prop analysis.
- 3 single-prop analyses per day (resets at midnight UTC)
- Every market, window and metric in the full analysis view
- Historical and hypothetical modes
Pro
02$10/week
A full week of analyses and the parlay builder.
- 25 single-prop analyses per week
- 25 parlay analyses per week (2-, 3- and 4-leg combined)
- Saved props, parlays and settled history
Sharp
03$25/week
Unlimited everything, plus the 20-game display window.
- Unlimited single-prop analyses
- Unlimited 2-, 3- and 4-leg parlay analyses
- Everything in Pro, including saved and settled history
Prices in USD, billed weekly through Stripe; the checkout amount is authoritative. Free usage resets daily at midnight UTC.
Your first analysis
Pick a prop. See the edge.
Three single-prop analyses a day on the free plan. No card required.